Oil Shock 2.0: Is India Prepared This Time?

 The oil market has started to feel unsettled again. Not sharply, but enough to get attention. Prices are moving in a way that suggests underlying strain, and supply discussions have become more careful in tone. For India, this brings back a familiar line of thought. We have seen this play out before. The difference now is scale. We are a larger economy, consuming more energy, and relying heavily on imported crude to keep that momentum going.

The Dependence We Carry
India’s import dependence is now close to 88–89 percent. It has risen gradually, almost in step with economic expansion. There is no immediate alternative to this. We import because we need to. That also means global disruptions do not stay distant; they reach us, sometimes faster than expected.

When Oil Moves, It Spreads
Oil has a way of affecting more than just one sector. A rise in crude prices finds its way into transport, production costs, and eventually into everyday expenses. Earlier this year, prices moved sharply during a phase of geopolitical tension, briefly touching levels close to $120 per barrel. What stands out in such moments is not just the increase, but how quickly it happens.

 

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